DecisionBranch — the decision tree that does the maths

DecisionBranchThe decision tree that does the maths.

Outline · indentation is the tree

# Analytical: should we launch, pilot first, or hold?

Launch the new product?

Launch nationally (cost 50000) # full marketing budget

Strong demand (p 0.4): 200000

Weak demand (p 0.6): 20000

Pilot in one city first (cost 15000)

Pilot succeeds (p 0.5)

Roll out nationally (cost 45000)

Strong demand (p 0.7): 200000

Weak demand (p 0.3): 20000

Stop after pilot: 0

Pilot fails (p 0.5)

Roll out anyway (cost 45000)

Strong demand (p 0.1): 200000

Weak demand (p 0.9): 20000

Stop after pilot: 0

Don't launch: 0

Outline is valid.

RecommendedLaunch nationallyExpected value 42,000 · 6,500 ahead of Pilot in one city first